Business Time » Asia http://ronniecash.com Mon, 30 Jan 2012 14:22:28 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Asian Property: a Decade After the Crisis http://ronniecash.com/asian-property-a-decade-after-the-crisis.html http://ronniecash.com/asian-property-a-decade-after-the-crisis.html#comments Sat, 08 Aug 2009 02:22:29 +0000 admin http://ronniecash.com/asian-property-a-decade-after-the-crisis.html Asian Property: a Decade After the Crisis

A decade after the 1997 Asian Crisis erupted, most housing markets in Asia are well on their way to recovery.

Boosted by strong economic growth and strong local and international demand, residential real estate prices in the Philippines, Singapore and South Korea rose by more than 10% in nominal terms y-o-y to Q1 2007.

In Hong Kong, after registering price falls in early 2006, the over-all residential price index is back in positive territory. The index rose 5.2% y-o-y to March 2007. However this is significantly lower than the annual price increases to the first quarter of 2005 and 2004, at 21% and 28%, respectively.

No bubble this time

Although property prices in most Asian countries are still below their peak levels, rapid price appreciation has taken place over the past five years, leading to renewed fears that a speculative property bubble is forming in several Asian countries.

The fear is not unfounded; one has only to recall Asia’s spectacular and disastrous property bubbles of the 1990s.

However, the recent price increases are actually recoveries from the previous slump caused by the Asian crisis and other phenomena.

As of Q1 2007, property prices in most Asian countries are in fact still below their peak levels in real terms.

Strong housing demand

Current economic and monetary conditions suggest continued strong demand for housing. All economies affected by the Asian Crisis grew by 5% or more in 2006. GDP growth from 2002 to 2006 has been markedly stronger than during the crisis period – 1997 to 2001, although slower compared to the tail-end of the “Asian Economic Miracle”.

As a result of financial and monetary reforms implemented after the crisis, banks and other financial institutions are in much better shape now. Asia’s mortgage market is set for a boom. This is despite the fact that mortgage lenders are more cautious of over-exposing themselves to particular sectors (some pundits worry that banks are actually being too cautious).

Despite recent interest hikes, in line with global interest rates, base interest rates for mortgage lending are generally lower now than before the crisis.

Socio-economic conditions also point to continued strong demand for residential properties. Strong urbanization and population growth has led to high population densities in several Asian cities.

In view of the relatively restrained dwelling price rises, strong economic growth and banking sector caution and healthy yields to be enjoyed on properties in Asia, talk of another bubble seems far-fetched.

Other problems

A more pressing concern for Asian economies is the continuation of reforms to improve real estate efficiency and transparency. Transaction costs remain high and the property registration is still cumbersome in several countries.

While Malaysia is encouraging foreign property buyers, Thailand’s military junta is pushing them away. Thailand announced that it is completing a crackdown on foreign companies established for the sole purpose of buying landed properties. While the motivation for this move is unclear, the signal is clear “foreigners are not welcome.” Political uncertainty and policy flip-flaps by the ruling junta are undoubtedly hurting the real estate market.

In the Philippines, proposed property market reforms are languishing in congress. These laws include the establishment of a centralized agency for registering property and a standard property valuation system.

Full Report:

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/articleread.php?article_id=93&cid=

Economics Team:

Prince Christian Cruz, Senior Economist

Phone: (+632) 750 0560

Email: prince@globalpropertyguide.com

Publisher and Strategist:

Matthew Montagu-Pollock

Phone: (+632) 867 4220

Cell: (+63) 917 321 7073

Email: editor@globalpropertyguide.com

Address:

Global Property Guide

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com

5F Electra House Building

115-117 Esteban Street

Legaspi Village, Makati City

Philippines 1229

info@globalpropertyguide.com

Terms of Use:

On-line newspapers, magazines, etc wishing to use material from this press release MUST provide a clickable link to www.globalpropertyguide.com

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]]> http://ronniecash.com/asian-property-a-decade-after-the-crisis.html/feed 0 Asian Property Investment Risky and Badly Performing http://ronniecash.com/asian-property-investment-risky-and-badly-performing.html http://ronniecash.com/asian-property-investment-risky-and-badly-performing.html#comments Wed, 10 Jun 2009 02:22:19 +0000 admin http://ronniecash.com/asian-property-investment-risky-and-badly-performing.html Asian Property Investment Risky and Badly Performing

Asian residential property buyers beware!

Asia’s real estate markets seem, on the surface, to have recovered from the Asian crisis and to be back on their feet. In fact the entire world has enjoyed a residential property boom over the past decade – Europe, the US, Australia and New Zealand have seen property prices soar.

But in Asia the reality is quite different. Asia’s residential markets have performed poorly, according to a report by the Global Property Guide. Once the price rise figures are adjusted for inflation, Asia’s record looks poor.

HOW ASIA’S RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKETS HAVE PERFORMED SINCE THE PEAK (inflation-adjusted):

Hong Kong: still 61% below peak

Indonesia: still 50% below peak

Malaysia: still 10% below peak

Philippines: still 55% below peak

Singapore: still 37% below peak

South Korea: still 38% below peak

Thailand: still 10% below 1992 peak

“There have been few less profitable investments than Asian residential property over the past decade,” says Matthew Montagu-Pollock, publisher of the Global Property Guide.

“And if the present construction boom continues across Asia, the next decade isn’t going to be much fun for property investors either.”

Rental yields are quite high in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, while Asian countries benefit from strong economies. But their real estate markets’ rise has been limited, primarily by government mis-steps.

“Asian real estate markets would have been stronger had it not been for government mistakes,” says Prince Cruz, chief economist for the Global Property Guide. “If it is not a coup, a protest rally or runaway inflation, then it is government meddling in the housing markets that has killed performance”. Cruz’s study points to the housing markets of Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea as victims of government subsidies and intervention, while the housing markets of the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand have suffered from political instability.

Asian prices still far below peak levels

Despite gleaming reports of recovery, Asian house prices are still below their pre-Asian Crisis levels. In a report released, Global Property Guide suggests that a combination of inflation, widespread subsidies of housing markets, political troubles, and overbuilding, have made the outcome in Asia quite different from other ‘boom’ markets. Asia’s present apparent property boom is a ‘construction boom – not a property boom’, it says, warning investors against following the tempting siren song of the real estate professionals.

When adjusted for inflation, the happy picture changes remarkably from the good news about property price rises.

Indonesia, for instance, is having a difficult time battling inflation. Corrected for inflation, Indonesia’s house prices actually fell 8.4% in 2005 and 7% y-o-y during 2Q 2006.

This year’s mild nominal price fall in Hong Kong (3.7%) is amplified by considering inflation. Hong Kong dwelling prices have actually fallen by 6% in real terms.

The (modest) apparent price rises in South Korea, Singapore and the Philippines actually become price falls, or are greatly moderated, once inflation is factored in.

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